I wrote about the basis for dystopian fiction a while back, and while trolling for ideas to write about tonight, I stumbled on the idea of the various aspects of the dystopian future. As it is such a rich seam, I decided to write a series of pieces on it, with no particular discipline, just ideas, known stuff and the probable future. This week's topic hovers around the idea which is most sensationalised, sea level rise.
The sea level is predicted to rise between 50 cm and a couple of meters by the end of the century, depending on whose sensational article you are reading. The general impression, through rosy tinted glasses, is that in the last few hours before the turn of the millennium, we should all get away from the beach because the seas will rise like water in a basin.
It's a nice idea, but it doesn't work that neatly. Sea level rise is happening now, it is unpredictable and it is taking on an exponential characteristic. The impacts? Part of New York was swamped in a storm just the other day. Bangladesh is going. Coastal cities in the Far East are in trouble. Island nations are looking for the opportunity to evacuate.
Land that was farmed is now being lost to salinity. Water sources are being contaminated with salty water. Dependency on the sea as a source of protein will be a major problem. Ocean acidity is killing reefs, which means that breeding areas for fishes will be lost. Loss of reefs will also contribute to coastal erosion. All of this spells hunger and moving people.
The cost of moving or preserving infrastructure was put at about USD 29 trillion a couple of years ago.
About 40 per cent of humanity lives within 100 km of coastlines, and that figure is rising.
The coastal dystopia
Because of the huge cost of moving infrastructure, governments will cut back on social spending. The burden on citizens to pay for the new infrastructure will rise, and this will contribute to growing poverty. Moving populations will add to economic and social difficulties. Centralised boom towns are very likely but the cost of maintaining a good standard of living in these centers will be extremely difficult. As coasts become less inhabitable, there will be a fair number of climate refugees in a relatively short span of time. (It's not easy for someone on or below the breadline to give up stability, so the decision to move will be delayed.) Hunger will also become a major issue.
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