Ebooks: the current frenzy and some likely outcomes

Thanks to the ebook revolution, anyone with a book, an internet computer and the patience to learn a little bit of html has the ability to publish. There are now about more than a million ebooks on Kindle, so it feels very much as if everyone is publishing. Factor in other ebook formats and it is easy to reach the conclusion that everyone and then some are publishing. This is absolutely wonderful, but it creates a new set of challenges for writers and readers.

This first part article describes the challenges facing self-published authors. The second part, 'The shape of things to come', contains my projected outcomes, which may or may not be positive for you. You can, if you want, skip down to there and then head back up to see where it comes from.

Background 1: foretelling the demise of mainstream print publishing

In 2011 and early 2012 events and buzz foretold the looming demise of mainstream print publishing. Amazon unveiled a new pricing strategy with a 70% royalty to authors and an optimum low price break of USD 2,99. On the price break, authors could (can) sell at a lower cost and earn a higher royalty per unit than mainstream print publishers offer on a higher priced item. At the same time, details were made public of what very much looked like price collusion between Apple and large publishing houses. Naturally this aroused the ire of readers and writers.

Background 2: the liberation of writers

Superficially, writers appear to have been liberated. In the past, the process of trying to become published in print was a demoralizing affair. Writers would pen hundreds of submission letters on which they pinned their hopes and dreams. Publishers and agents routinely did not respond. In fact, even a rejection letter was a welcome sign to the writer that he or she had even been noticed. The writer can now ignore the desperate effort of finding a publisher and all the rigmarole, and jump straight into the market.

Implications

All of this has been greeted with glee, but there is an argument for mainstream print publishing. In a library of a million books, how do you choose what to read?

In the past, print publishers selected books and packaged and publicized them. The choice was limited (compared to the current ebook market) and excluded most writers, but there was a clearly defined selection of available books. Selections were offered in various genres, in various locations and were edited, packaged and distributed. New authors entered bookstores and libraries regularly in a predictable manner. With the pressure on print publishers, this is under threat.

Although the ebook paradigm favours a far wider spread of opportunities, it makes life more complex for writers and readers.

Reader choice

In the print publishing market, readers had an easier task of choosing what to read. Publisher lines within genres gave readers good indications of what might appeal to them. Now, with more than a million choices, readers are faced with crowded genres. Reader reviews should be a good indication of what to expect, but this can only be a fairly accurate indication if there is a relatively high number of reviews or if the author has the means to pay for a reputable, professional reviewing service or if the reviews come from know personalities.

Unfortunately this means that good to great authors, who might have benefited from a print publisher, may be submerged in the vast number of books that are now available.

The new marketing frenzy

In order to come to the attention of readers, ebook authors have to do their own marketing now. Using Amazon as an example, authors have to induce readers to 'like', 'tag', review and 'share' their books in addition to buying and reading them. This is not just a burden on authors, but also an unfeasible demand on most readers.

Authors logically have to find ways through the system to get their books highlighted, so groups are formed, which work as syndicates, to like, tag and, hopefully, review. This can produce a skewed view of the book. It can enable the author to break the rumoured and diaphanous threshold  for better positioning on Amazon, but once the author has managed to eke his or her way beyond the threshold, it must be up to the reader to take it that one step further.

Here's a scary thought. What if persistently high reviews lead readers to begin looking at negative reviews for balance?

In addition the writer has to maintain several forms of social networking, currently a likely mix of Facebook, Facebook interest groups, Twitter, Shelfari, Goodreads and likely adding Pinterest now. A blog is also required. It is all hard work.

The vast amount of marketing activity has the potential to do damage to the writer. In the case of a part-time writer hoping to graduate to full-time writing, writing time is reduced to a minimum. In the case of a full-time writer who is not yet earning large amounts time is limited and financial security is diminished.

Amazon goes Google

According to recent hearsay (May 2012), Amazon is uprating 'shares' (where the reader presses 'share' post purchase or after reading an ebook) in the rumoured system of assigning priority (unknown how this will materialise) to book rankings. This makes an incredible amount of sense if reader popularity is a factor in ranking marketing priority or visibility of books. Bear in mind that Amazon has to use its resources to earn an income, so it will seek to find books which can improve its income.

Google has been notable in search priority, and regularly updates its algorithm in the quest for better results. More emphasis from Amazon on search priority must be expected, and writers will have to understand how this works.

Story quality

One of the pieces of advice given to self publishers is to ensure that there is a wide selection. In other words, writers have to write more and publish more often. This will obviously shorten the works published and reduce the quality both in content and in editing as writers try to get to market in a rush. The huge number of single short stories, short collections and novellas is already obvious.

THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME

Certain things can be projected from the above. Whether these estimations are true or not will depend on the evolution of the ebook market, but for now, I am comfortable with them.

New bestsellers

Best-sellers will be more genre driven than ever before. Writers who focus on specific genres will become more successful than they have been. In addition to genre leaders there will be an emerging class of writers within genre niches. For instance, a writer in the horror genre may focus on zombies, werewolves, vampires or any of the other genre niches. A writer in a crowded genre niche will have a harder time differentiating himself or herself from other writers in that niche. Switching niches may increase sales.

Genre and niche success will be driven primarily by special interest groups on social networking platforms and, obviously, ranking on Amazon within genres and the niches Amazon has assigned to them. Whether or not Amazon will expand its genre niches is a question. Hopefully this will be the case. More focus on niches will allow Amazon to make more accurate recommendations that are more productive in terms of sales.

If you know someone from Amazon, please raise the topic with them. Their niches in the Horror section show that they are not particularly informed by love of the genre.

The successors to mainstream print publishing

With the massive increase in marketing tasks facing the writer, the nascent emergence of ebook marketing bureaus becomes interesting. Successful bureaus will become known and will become important in getting books to the relevant markets. The distribution chain is obvious. There is room for growth of these services, not just in terms of numbers, but also in terms of aspects such as editing, obtaining reviews, packaging, cover design, management of social networking and more. Given that most writers are not particularly wealthy and may have difficulty with flat fees, it seems likely that these services will evolve from the fees based system to a commission system.

Where these bureaus can improve on the current chaotic system is in creating stables of writers within genres or niches and selecting books to fit those niches. The gain is not just in creating a market of readers for publications managed by that bureau. Aside from identifying or endorsing books to readers with specific tastes, readers of books in a genre, style or band of quality can be pointed to other books with similar characteristics.

There will also be an economy of scale in centralizing social networking functions and author blogging, rather than managing multiple marketing functions. The book marketing bureau can administer its own social networking function

However it is unlikely that these bureaus will be as profitable as the huge international print houses due to the genre paradigm, Amazon's new optimum price break and the likelihood that self-published authors who have experience will resist the more unpopular elements of traditional publishing contracts.

Think of it as publishing without printing and distribution.

Amazon's intent and its market leadership

Although the Kindle has opened doors to writers, it is wrong to expect the current boom in ebooks to last forever. Amazon's leadership lies in distribution of content that includes movies, music and software in addition to books. Two items prove this point. Firstly, the Kindle Fire is a multipurpose device that is not limited to books, the way previous generations of Kindles were. Secondly, it has not limited content to its own devices, as you can see from the phenomenon of the free, multi-platfom Kindle App.

This sort of content leadership challenges the efforts of other devices and platforms. In order to justify investment and business activity, other devices will have to find ways to offer similar functionality. Sooner or later the leaders will dictate the playing field.

Here's a question. Free Kindle reading apps are available for Apple, but not vice versa. How long can Apple continue to succeed as a content provider and at what lost opportunity cost to its investors Wouldn't they do better to invest in Amazon?

What Matt Cutts said and the first advice given to writers by writers

In the Google SEO frenzy, as everyone joined the arms race to maintain top search rankings, Google luminary Matt Cutts almost got drowned out. He said words to the effect that without good content on a website, high rankings become irrelevant.

What is obvious is that many self-published authors are desperate to write for a living, and very few will achieve this goal. Yet in spite of all the pressure, there are a handful of writers who are publishing exceptional work without the frenzied activities. I count myself very lucky to have found some of them and have recommended them onwards as best I can.

Good books are shared and spoken about.

The first advice given to writers is to write for pleasure (and I think, for those readers who will share your pleasure). Writers who get rich, or even make a living from it, are as scarce as hens' teeth. If you love your writing, you probably won't get rich, but your thoughts, your voice and your readers' pleasure will enrich you.