Dystopian future: the age gap

Once upon a time, lifespans were far shorter than they are today. Sixty was old age. Today the age of retirement is set well past sixty. In most developed countries, a lifespan stretching into the seventies is the norm, and this can easily stretch into the eighties. Unfortunately, this can become a nightmare.

Lifespans in developing parts of the world may be far shorter due to poor living standards, which include health, nutrition and access to care. The mean can also be reduced by diseases such as HIV, TB and malaria. This is a common phenomenon in blocs such as the SADC. However even there, there is a far better chance of living into old age, with many of the deaths happening in the median age bands.

The other side of the coin is rapid growth in youth. As health has improved children have been better able to resist the diseases and threats of childhood. This Malthusian paradigm has lead to increased poverty (a relative measure given conditions in the past) and subdivision of resources in family units.

There are two broad scenarios in the dual global economies of prosperity and poverty.

In the developed world, savings are not able to match the longevity of people, so the idea of retirement is fast becoming illusory. As wealth is eroded, 'senior citizens' are staying economically active for longer. Those who cannot stay economically active are falling back on their children, if they are able to, or are falling into poverty. The growing phenomenon of geriatric crime is being noted.

At the same time, those with wealth, are being channeled into a new economy, the economy of senior citizens. This economy is very often marked by bounded communities.

In the developing world, senior citizens are staying active longer as well, but for different reasons. The poverty of families means that elders cannot rely on the traditional resource of the productivity of children. Deaths in the middle generations often mean that the elders have to adopt the parenting role for their grandchildren, a role that they might have thought was behind them. As economic assets are divided the ability of elders who are able to work is eroded as well. And, where the elderly have to rely on impoverished families, there is a strong possibility of abuse.

The age gap dystopia
As socio-economic ills beset the younger and older segments, there will be an increasing separation between the aging segment and the current age group from, I estimate, 16 to 59.  Levels of violence are likely to increase as the aging segment is accused of using a disproportionate amount of economic resources. The solution, greater levels of economic activity in aging segments will also produce violence as the younger segments will believe that they are being robbed of economic opportunity. As a result, aging segments will set up as communities with distinct micro-economies. Where there are sufficient economic resources, the aging communitis will bring to bear money, knowledge and force (as in heavily armed guards, like it is now, just perhaps a bit more trigger happy) to maintain their positions.

One of the interesting things that is difficult to predict is how people will graduate into older communities, especially if there has been overt conflict? There may be a process of enfranchisement based on skills or financial resources, but what about the idea of new communities springing up, and alliances and mergers between communities?